Assessing Changes in Land Use/Land Cover and Ecological Risk to Conserve Protected Areas in Urban–Rural Contexts

Land use/land cover (LULC) changes in response to natural factors and human activities constitute a pressing issue for the conservation of Protected Areas urban–rural landscapes. The present study investigated LULC Jajrud Area (JPA) Kavdeh Wildlife Refuge (KWR) Tehran province, Iran, between 1989 2019. To inform ecological measures JPA KWR, were identified monitored using Landsat imagery from In addition, landscape risk (ER) was evaluated by conducting pattern index analysis. Then, importance different indicators affected ER these two PAs assessed Delphi method, expert opinions solicited through questionnaire. As JPA, high-density pasture declined most over 1989–2019, 38.6% (29,241 ha) 37.7% (28,540 ha). contrast, built-up areas increased most, 10.4% (7895 11.9% (9048 Water bodies also increased, 0.88% (676 0.94% (715 cropland gardens 2.14% (1647 3.4% (2606 Built-up 0.05% (45 0.09% (75 0.69% (538 0.71% (552 Finally, decreased 29.4% (22,603 28.5% (21,955 At same time, high very classes more so compared KWR. considering both changes, method demonstrated that greatest impacts occurred JPA. Various illegal economic physical have created caused extensive destruction ecosystems, posing areas. intensity differs because varying distance metropolis, degrees activities, along with differences legal restrictions use. Aligned management plans areas, our research shows it is necessary develop land only within designated zones minimize amount ER. models been presented, comparison relating methodology model effectiveness can help increase their accuracy power interpretation.